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科学美国人60秒:火山爆发对火山预报的促进作用

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This is 60 Second Science, I'm Christopher Intagliata.

这里是《科学美国人》的 60 秒科学。我是Christopher Intagliata.

Christopher Intagliata: For three months now, the Cumbre Vieja volcano has unleashed fury upon the island of La Palma, in the Spanish Canary Islands. Ash has rained from the sky. Rivers of lava have consumed at least 2600 buildings, and razed plantations of bananas and avocados. The magma's movement underground has triggered clusters of earthquakes too—more than a dozen hit La Palma on a recent day.

三个月来,在西班牙加那利群岛(Canary Islands)西北端的拉帕尔马岛(La Palma)上,老昆布雷火山(Cumbre Vieja)一直肆意释放着怒火。火山灰烬从天而降,熔岩流吞噬了至少2600栋建筑,夷平了香蕉和鳄梨种植园。而地下的岩浆活动也在拉帕尔马岛上触发了一系列地震,一天可能发生十几次。

Despite that devastation, only one death has been attributed to the eruption. And volcanologists say the recent activity has them rethinking their predictions of the volcano's next move.

尽管灾情严重,但只有一人丧生于火山喷发。火山学家说,最近的火山活动让他们重新思考如何预测火山的后续活动。

Marc-Antoine Longpré: "It's always useful to see a new volcano personality."

“看到火山新的‘个性',用处是很大的。”美国纽约城市大学(City University of New York)的火山学家马克·安托万·隆普雷(Marc-Antoine Longpré)说道。

Intagliata: Marc-Antoine Longpré is a volcanologist at the City University of New York. He says every eruption helps scientists better understand volcanoes, and improve their forecasts.

他表示,每一次喷发都有助于科学家更好地了解火山,改进他们的预测。

Longpré: One lesson is that volcanoes in the Canary Islands behave a little bit differently from other basaltic volcanoes we commonly see in the media for example, like Hawaiian volcanoes and Etna in Italy.

“这给我们的启示之一是,与我们在媒体中常见的玄武岩火山,例如夏威夷火山群(Hawaiian volcanoes)和意大利的埃特纳(Etna)火山相比,加那利群岛火山的行为略有不同。”

Intagliata: He explains that those volcanoes tend to have a shorter run-up to their eruptions. Whereas Cumbre Vieja began to reawaken years ago, in October 2017, with a cluster of tiny earthquakes. In the years since, the volcano has triggered sporadic swarms of tiny quakes. But on September 11th, 2021 -- eight days before the eruption -- things picked up. Several hundred quakes hit every day. And the ground began to deform, likely due to flows of magma.

隆普雷解释说,这些(玄武岩)火山喷发前的“预热”时间较短。而老昆布雷火山几年前就已苏醒,早在2017年10月,伴有小型的地震丛集(cluster)。自此之后,火山触发了零星的微弱地震群。但在2021年9月11日,也就是火山喷发的8天之前,地震越来越多。每天会震上数百次。而且可能由于岩浆流动,地面开始变形。

Longpré: In hindsight it took a long time for the volcano to reactivate but in the end there was a week of late stage warning that an eruption was going to come. So that's something that will be useful in the future for sure.

“事后看来,火山重新活动需要很长时间,但预警火山喷发即将到来的最终阶段可能只有一周左右。所以,这对未来肯定有用。”

Intagliata:Longpré's analysis appears in the journal Science. [Marc-Antoine Longpre?, Reactivation of Cumbre Vieja volcano]

隆普雷的分析结果发表在《科学》(Science)期刊上。

Cumbre Vieja last erupted 50 years ago, in 1971. Next time, Longpré says, forecasters will be better prepared.

老昆布雷火山最近一次喷发还是50年前的1971年。至于下一次,隆普雷表示,预报员会做好更充分的准备。

Longpré:In 50 years or maybe longer, when the volcano reactivates again, we will know from this current experience that it may take several years before the eruption actually shows up. And we also see that it can accelerate very rapidly and in the end give a short warning for an imminent eruption.

“在未来的50年或更长时间里,如果火山再次活动,这些经验会让我们明白,在真正喷发之前,火山可能会酝酿好几年。我们还看到,火山加速非常快,最终只会在很短的时间内发出警告,”预示即将到来的喷发。

Intagliata: But, as he writes in his paper -- predicting eruptions is one thing. Smart urban planning, to avoid the long-term risks of living on the flanks of a volcano, is entirely another.

但是,正如他在论文中所写到的,预测火山喷发是一回事。如何智能地进行城市规划,以消除生活在火山脚下的人们面临的长期风险,则完全是另外一回事。

Intagliata:Thanks for listening. For Scientific American's 60 Second Science, I'm Christopher Intagliata.

感谢收听。这里是《科学美国人》的 60 秒科学,Christopher Intagliata报道.

This is 60 Second Science, I'm Christopher Intagliata.

Christopher Intagliata: For three months now, the Cumbre Vieja volcano has unleashed fury upon the island of La Palma, in the Spanish Canary Islands. Ash has rained from the sky. Rivers of lava have consumed at least 2600 buildings, and razed plantations of bananas and avocados. The magma's movement underground has triggered clusters of earthquakes too—more than a dozen hit La Palma on a recent day.

Despite that devastation, only one death has been attributed to the eruption. And volcanologists say the recent activity has them rethinking their predictions of the volcano's next move.

Marc-Antoine Longpré: "It's always useful to see a new volcano personality."

Intagliata: Marc-Antoine Longpré is a volcanologist at the City University of New York. He says every eruption helps scientists better understand volcanoes, and improve their forecasts.

Longpré: One lesson is that volcanoes in the Canary Islands behave a little bit differently from other basaltic volcanoes we commonly see in the media for example, like Hawaiian volcanoes and Etna in Italy.

Intagliata: He explains that those volcanoes tend to have a shorter run-up to their eruptions. Whereas Cumbre Vieja began to reawaken years ago, in October 2017, with a cluster of tiny earthquakes. In the years since, the volcano has triggered sporadic swarms of tiny quakes. But on September 11th, 2021 -- eight days before the eruption -- things picked up. Several hundred quakes hit every day. And the ground began to deform, likely due to flows of magma.

Longpré: In hindsight it took a long time for the volcano to reactivate but in the end there was a week of late stage warning that an eruption was going to come. So that's something that will be useful in the future for sure.

Intagliata:Longpré's analysis appears in the journal Science. [Marc-Antoine Longpre?, Reactivation of Cumbre Vieja volcano]

Cumbre Vieja last erupted 50 years ago, in 1971. Next time, Longpré says, forecasters will be better prepared.

Longpré:In 50 years or maybe longer, when the volcano reactivates again, we will know from this current experience that it may take several years before the eruption actually shows up. And we also see that it can accelerate very rapidly and in the end give a short warning for an imminent eruption.

Intagliata: But, as he writes in his paper -- predicting eruptions is one thing. Smart urban planning, to avoid the long-term risks of living on the flanks of a volcano, is entirely another.

Intagliata:Thanks for listening. For Scientific American's 60 Second Science, I'm Christopher Intagliata.


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