By 2060, One Fourth of US Population will be Over Age 65
2060年美国四分之一的人口将超过65岁
The population of the United States will get older, even if the nation has high levels of immigration, suggest two reports from the U.S. Census Bureau.
美国人口普查局的两份报告指出，即使美国的移民水平很高，但美国人口也将进入老龄化。
One of the reports predicts that by the year 2060, around one fourth of the U.S. population will be over the age of 65. That same year, life expectancy could reach an all-time high of 85 years, the report notes.
其中一份报告预测，到2060年约有四分之一的美国人口将超过65岁。该报告还指出，届时人类的平均寿命或将达到85岁，创历史新高。
The other study suggests that even by 2030, around 20 percent of the population will be 65 years of age or older.
另一项研究表明，即使是2030年，也会有大约20%的人口将达到65岁以上。
Census Bureau researchers expect the growth in life expectancy over the next 40 years to be slower than it has been over the past 40 years.
人口普查局的研究人员预计，未来40年的人类的平均寿命增长将比过去40年的增长要慢。
Between 1970 and 2015, life expectancy rose by almost 8 years. But researchers predict it will rise only about 6 years between 2017 and 2060.
1970年至2015年间，人类平均寿命增长了将近8年。但是研究人员预测，2017年至2060年间，这一数字只会增长约6年。
One report notes that “preventable health risks — such as smoking, obesity, and, more recently, opioid-related overdoses” could play a role in slowed gains in life expectancy.
一份报告指出，“可预防的健康风险，例如吸烟，肥胖，以及近期常见的与阿片类药物有关的药物使用过量”，可能会是平均寿命增长延缓的因素。
The United States could grow from about 332 million people today to around 404 million people by 2060. By 2028, the percentage of foreign-born people will be 14.9%, the Census Bureau predicts. That would be the highest percentage of foreign-born people since 1850.
美国人口普查局预测，到2060年，美国的人口将从今天的约3.32亿增长到约4.04亿。到2028年，外籍出生人口的比例将达到14.9%。这将是自1850年以来外籍出生人口所占的最高比例。
U.S. immigration policy will play an important role in population growth, notes the Census Bureau.
美国人口普查局指出，美国的移民政策将在人口增长中发挥重要作用。
With high levels of immigration, defined as an increase of 50% over a 10-year period, the population could grow to 447 million people by 2060.
在高移民率的情况下，假设每十年间增长50%移民，到2060年人口将增长到4.47亿。
But with no immigration, the country could lose population after 2035.
但是如果没有移民，2035年后美国人口或将会减少。
Immigration will also determine the nation’s diversity by 2060, said William Frey of The Brookings Institution research group.
布鲁金斯学会研究小组的威廉·弗雷表示，到2060年移民还将决定美国国家的多样性。
By 2045, white people will represent less than half of the population under current projections, he said.
他说，按照目前的情况来预测，到2045年白人将占不到总人口的一半。
“If immigration was stopped, then we will stay majority white until 2060 but barely at 51.1 percent,” Frey said in an email. “But the story is different for the young under age 30 population.”
弗雷在一封电子邮件中写道：“如果停止移民，那么到2060年美国白人将仍然占美国人口的多数，但是占比仅为51.1%。但是对于30岁以下的年轻人来说，情况就不同了。”
Under current projections, that age group will become “minority white” in 2024. Without immigration, whites under age 30 will be in the minority by 2032, Frey said.
弗雷说，按照目前的预测，到2024年这个年龄段的白人将成为“少数人种”。如果没有移民，到2032年美国30岁以下的白人将成为少数人种。
Starting in 2030, international migration will be the biggest cause of population growth in the country.
从2030年开始，国际移民将成为美国人口增长的最大因素。
I’m John Russell.
约翰·罗素报道。
By 2060, One Fourth of US Population will be Over Age 65
The population of the United States will get older, even if the nation has high levels of immigration, suggest two reports from the U.S. Census Bureau.
One of the reports predicts that by the year 2060, around one fourth of the U.S. population will be over the age of 65. That same year, life expectancy could reach an all-time high of 85 years, the report notes.
The other study suggests that even by 2030, around 20 percent of the population will be 65 years of age or older.
Census Bureau researchers expect the growth in life expectancy over the next 40 years to be slower than it has been over the past 40 years.
Between 1970 and 2015, life expectancy rose by almost 8 years. But researchers predict it will rise only about 6 years between 2017 and 2060.
One report notes that “preventable health risks — such as smoking, obesity, and, more recently, opioid-related overdoses” could play a role in slowed gains in life expectancy.
The United States could grow from about 332 million people today to around 404 million people by 2060. By 2028, the percentage of foreign-born people will be 14.9%, the Census Bureau predicts. That would be the highest percentage of foreign-born people since 1850.
U.S. immigration policy will play an important role in population growth, notes the Census Bureau.
With high levels of immigration, defined as an increase of 50% over a 10-year period, the population could grow to 447 million people by 2060.
But with no immigration, the country could lose population after 2035.
Immigration will also determine the nation’s diversity by 2060, said William Frey of The Brookings Institution research group.
By 2045, white people will represent less than half of the population under current projections, he said.
“If immigration was stopped, then we will stay majority white until 2060 but barely at 51.1 percent,” Frey said in an email. “But the story is different for the young under age 30 population.”
Under current projections, that age group will become “minority white” in 2024. Without immigration, whites under age 30 will be in the minority by 2032, Frey said.
Starting in 2030, international migration will be the biggest cause of population growth in the country.
I’m John Russell.
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