VOA英语学习网 > 科学美国人 > 2019年科学美国人 > 科学美国人60秒科学系列 >
缩小放大

科学美国人60秒: 交通摄像头记录事故发生

[提示:]双击单词,即可查看词义!如果生词较多,请先学习:VOA慢速英语1500基础词汇
中英对照 听力原文

Traffic Cameras Show Why the Yankees Should Suffer Fewer Injuries in 2020

交通摄像头记录事故发生

With a full month of the regular season to play, the 2019 New York Yankees had set a Major League Baseball record for injuries. That medical crisis led to what the online sports publication the Athletic reported on January 3rd as “sweeping changes” to their training and strength-and-conditioning programs. When I read that news, I thought, of course, of traffic cameras, which sometimes, and reasonably, get placed at sites that have a disproportionate number of accidents in a given year.

离常规赛还有整整一个月的时间,2019年纽约洋基队创下了职业棒球大联盟的伤病记录。1月3日,在线体育杂志《the Athletic》报道称,医疗危机导致他们的训练和力量训练项目发生了“彻底的改变”。当我读到这则新闻时,想到了交通摄像头,摄像头有时会合理地出现在某一年事故频发的地方。

“The fact that there’s a higher rate of accidents will be partly due to chance because it will fluctuate over the course of time. Sometimes it will be less; sometimes it will be high.”

“事故发生率更高的事实部分是由于偶然性,因为它会随着时间的推移而波动。有时会少一些;有时会很高。”

\

David J. Hand, on the Scientific American Science Talk podcast in 2014. He’s emeritus professor of mathematics and senior research investigator at Imperial College London, where he formerly held the chair in statistics. He was on the podcast to talk about then new book The Improbability Principle: Why Coincidences, Miracles, and Rare Events Happen Every Day.

戴维·j·汉德,2014年《科学美国人》科学谈话播客。他是伦敦帝国理工学院的数学名誉教授和高级研究员,曾担任该学院的统计学教授。他在播客上谈论了当时的新书《非概率原理:为什么巧合、奇迹和罕见事件每天都在发生》。

So what does the Yankees’ revamped training staff potentially have in common with traffic cameras?

那么洋基的训练人员与交通摄影机有什麽共同之处呢?

“Now if we look back at last year and identify the places which have particularly high rates of accidents, the high rate of those places will be due to a sum of two things: the natural degree of dangerousness of those places, plus the fact that that particular year just happens to be a bad year—there were more accidents than normal at that year. But because it is a high rate of accidents, we’re now going to put a camera there.”

现在如果我们回顾去年并确定事故频发的地方,这些地方的高概率是由于以下原因:地段危险性比较高,加上那一年这一事实——恰好是一个坏比正常更意外。但由于事故发生率很高,我们现在准备在那里安装摄像头。”

Again, a particular year just happens to be a bad year.

同样,某一年恰好是糟糕的一年。

“Now what happens next year? The natural dangerousness of the place hasn’t changed; it’s still the same corner or intersection or whatever. But the chance bit of the number of accidents there, well, it could be low just as easy as high next year. On average, it will be lower than the high rate we saw. So next year, the rate will come down. It won’t be because of the camera, it will just be because of natural fluctuation, removing that sort of chance part. But it will look as if putting the cameras there has improved things.”

“那么明年呢?”这个地方的自然危险并没有改变;它仍然是相同的街角或十字路口或其他地方。但是那里发生事故的几率很小,可能会和明年一样低。平均而言,将低于我们看到的高增长率。明年,概率会下降。这不是因为相机,而是因为自然波动,消除了那种偶然的部分。但是,把摄像头放在那里看起来似乎改善了情况。”

Hand continued: “The fact is, however, the speed cameras do work. There is no question that they do reduce the rate of accidents but not as much as a superficial analysis failing to take into account the Law of Selection and Regression to the Mean makes it look like.”

汉德接着说:“事实上,无论如何,超速摄影机是有用的。毫无疑问,它们确实降低了事故率,但是没有表面分析那么多,因为摄像机不能考虑到选择和回归平均的法则。”

As a big Yankees fans, I hope they have no injuries at all in 2020—and that the new training staff is outstanding. But when the team’s injury rate falls—as it’s almost certain to do after a record-setting bad year—I’ll keep in mind that at least part of the drop may be due not to Tinkers, nor to Evers, but to chance.

作为洋基队的铁杆球迷,我希望他们在2020年没有任何伤病,而且新的训练人员也很出色。但是,当球队的伤亡率下降时——几乎可以肯定的是,在经历了创记录的糟糕一年之后——我会记住,至少部分的下降可能不是由于汀克斯,也不是由于艾佛斯,而是由于偶然。

Traffic Cameras Show Why the Yankees Should Suffer Fewer Injuries in 2020

With a full month of the regular season to play, the 2019 New York Yankees had set a Major League Baseball record for injuries. That medical crisis led to what the online sports publication the Athletic reported on January 3rd as “sweeping changes” to their training and strength-and-conditioning programs. When I read that news, I thought, of course, of traffic cameras, which sometimes, and reasonably, get placed at sites that have a disproportionate number of accidents in a given year.

“The fact that there’s a higher rate of accidents will be partly due to chance because it will fluctuate over the course of time. Sometimes it will be less; sometimes it will be high.”

David J. Hand, on the Scientific American Science Talk podcast in 2014. He’s emeritus professor of mathematics and senior research investigator at Imperial College London, where he formerly held the chair in statistics. He was on the podcast to talk about then new book The Improbability Principle: Why Coincidences, Miracles, and Rare Events Happen Every Day.

So what does the Yankees’ revamped training staff potentially have in common with traffic cameras?

“Now if we look back at last year and identify the places which have particularly high rates of accidents, the high rate of those places will be due to a sum of two things: the natural degree of dangerousness of those places, plus the fact that that particular year just happens to be a bad year—there were more accidents than normal at that year. But because it is a high rate of accidents, we’re now going to put a camera there.”

Again, a particular year just happens to be a bad year.

“Now what happens next year? The natural dangerousness of the place hasn’t changed; it’s still the same corner or intersection or whatever. But the chance bit of the number of accidents there, well, it could be low just as easy as high next year. On average, it will be lower than the high rate we saw. So next year, the rate will come down. It won’t be because of the camera, it will just be because of natural fluctuation, removing that sort of chance part. But it will look as if putting the cameras there has improved things.”

Hand continued: “The fact is, however, the speed cameras do work. There is no question that they do reduce the rate of accidents but not as much as a superficial analysis failing to take into account the Law of Selection and Regression to the Mean makes it look like.”

As a big Yankees fans, I hope they have no injuries at all in 2020—and that the new training staff is outstanding. But when the team’s injury rate falls—as it’s almost certain to do after a record-setting bad year—I’ll keep in mind that at least part of the drop may be due not to Tinkers, nor to Evers, but to chance.


内容来自 VOA英语学习网https://www.chinavoa.com/show-8762-241990-1.html
Related Articles
内容推荐