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Negative US Interest Rates? Not Likely, Say Investors

美国降至负利率?专家称希望不大

Important interest rates in Europe and Japan have been negative for several years. The moves, however, could provide a warning about what happens when central banks' efforts to support growth create problems instead.
欧洲和日本已经维持了多年的负利率。然而,此举可能对央行保增长措施反而制造麻烦时会发生什么发出了警示。

That is the idea expressed last week by finance officials and others at the Reuters Global Investment Outlook 2020 Summit. They argue that the effects of below-zero interest rates are long-lasting and harmful.
这是上周金融官员等人士在《路透全球投资展望2020峰会》上表达的观点。他们认为,负利率的影响是持久且有害的。

Interest rates are negative when lenders – not borrowers – must pay interest.
负利率是指贷方必须支付利息,而不是借款方支付利息。

Critics say negative rates punish people who save money, cause problems for big banks and lead people to take bigger risks to get a small amount of interest.
批评人士表示,负利率会惩罚储户,给大型银行制造麻烦,并导致人们冒更大风险来获得小额利息。

About $12.5 trillion of the world's bonds, about 30 percent of the debt of countries in the developed world, pay negative interest. The Bank of Japan and the European Central Bank want economic growth and a small amount of inflation, so they have cut their interest rates to below zero.

全球约有12.5万亿美元的债券是负利率,它占到了发达国家债务的30%。日本和欧洲央行希望维持经济增长和温和通胀,因此将利率降为负利率。

However, a negative interest rate policy helps keep other interest rates, like the ones banks pay savers, low.
然而,负利率政策有助于将其它利率维持在较低水平,例如银行向储户支付的利率。

That means older people saving for retirement or in retirement are losing money, explained a recent blog post by BlackRock.
贝莱德集团在最近的一篇博客中解释道,这意味着攒钱等退休或者已经退休的老年人正在赔钱。

Blackrock and other investors say the U.S. Federal Reserve under Chairman Jerome Powell has been closely watching the situation in Europe and Japan. They say Powell wants to avoid negative rates in the United States.
贝莱德集团等投资方表示,杰罗姆·鲍威尔主席领导下的美联储一直在密切关注欧洲和日本的局势。他们称鲍威尔希望避免美国出现负利率。

"When you listen to Powell and other representatives of the Fed, they don't want to takes rates negative," said Dan Ivascyn. He is an investment officer at bond seller Pacific Investment Management Co.
丹·伊瓦辛表示:“你听听鲍威尔和美联储其他代表的说法,他们不想采取负利率。”伊瓦辛是债券承销商太平洋资产管理公司的一名投资官员。

"It will be well down the list of the tools that they will use," he said.
他说:“它排在美联储会采用手段清单的下方。”

The moves by Europe and Japan's central banks have raised a question about what tools others, such as the U.S. Federal Reserve, have to fight a slowing economy.
欧洲和日本央行的举动引发了一大疑问,即诸如美联储之类的其它机构会采取什么手段应对经济放缓。

The U.S. central bank last month cut its overnight lending rate by a fourth of a percentage point to a target somewhere between 1.5 percent and 1.75 percent.
美联储上个月将隔夜借贷利率下调了1/4,降至1.5%到1.75%之间的目标水平。

U.S. President Donald Trump has suggested that the Federal Reserve push interest rates into negative numbers as a way to permit the U.S. government to refinance its $22 trillion in debt.
美国总统川普曾建议美联储将利率下调至负利率,以此作为允许美国政府为其22万亿美元债务进行再融资的手段。

That is unlikely to happen, some of the financial experts at the meetings said.
与会金融专家表示,这不太可能会发生。

"Never say never, but there is a real hesitancy here in the U.S. to take rates below (zero)," said Greg Peters. He is with the investment company, PGIM Fixed Income.
格雷格·彼得斯表示:“话不能说死,但是美联储的确在采取零利率政策上非常犹豫不决。”他就职于PGIM固定收益投资公司。

"I think the U.S. has had the benefit of seeing the (effects) of negative rates elsewhere," he added.
他还说:“我认为美国已经从观望其它地区负利率影响中受益。”

Negative interest rates do not always lead to an increase in lending and growing business investment.
负利率并不总是会导致贷款增加和商业投资增加。

Negative rates can cause financial organizations to earn less. If their profits are affected they might stop lending altogether and that would hurt the economy.
负利率会导致金融机构的收入减少。如果金融机构的利润收到影响,他们可能会完全停止放贷,这将会损害经济。

Anne Mathias supervises investing at Vanguard. She is an expert in worldwide interest rates. She said negative interest rates are unlikely.
安妮·马蒂亚斯在先锋集团负责投资。马蒂亚斯是一名全球利率专家。她说美国不太可能实施负利率。

"If we go into a recession...we will just go back to quantitative easing and expand the balance sheet again," she said.
她说:“如果我们陷入衰退,我们会再次退回到量化宽松政策并扩大资产负债表。”

Andrew Hsu is a manager of the DoubleLine Total Return Bond Fund. He warned about the effects of negative rates.
安德鲁·许是双线总回报债券基金的经理。他对负利率影响提出了警告。

"If we had negative rates for the next 10-20 years... no one in this room will be able to retire," he said.
他说:“如果我们在未来10到20年实施负利率,那在座的各位谁都别想能够退休。”

I'm Susan Shand.
我是苏珊·尚德。

________________________________________________________________

Words in This Story

negative – adj. less than zero

stimulus – n. putting money into an economy

bond – n. an official document in which a government or company promises to pay back an amount of money that it has borrowed and to pay interest for the borrowed money

refinance – v. to get a new loan to pay an older debt

hesitancy – n. slow to act or speak especially because you are nervous or unsure about what to d

quantitative easing – n. the introduction of new money into the money supply by a central bank.

Negative US Interest Rates? Not Likely, Say Investors

Important interest rates in Europe and Japan have been negative for several years. The moves, however, could provide a warning about what happens when central banks' efforts to support growth create problems instead.

That is the idea expressed last week by finance officials and others at the Reuters Global Investment Outlook 2020 Summit. They argue that the effects of below-zero interest rates are long-lasting and harmful.

Interest rates are negative when lenders – not borrowers – must pay interest.

Critics say negative rates punish people who save money, cause problems for big banks and lead people to take bigger risks to get a small amount of interest.

About $12.5 trillion of the world's bonds, about 30 percent of the debt of countries in the developed world, pay negative interest. The Bank of Japan and the European Central Bank want economic growth and a small amount of inflation, so they have cut their interest rates to below zero.

However, a negative interest rate policy helps keep other interest rates, like the ones banks pay savers, low.

That means older people saving for retirement or in retirement are losing money, explained a recent blog post by BlackRock.

Blackrock and other investors say the U.S. Federal Reserve under Chairman Jerome Powell has been closely watching the situation in Europe and Japan. They say Powell wants to avoid negative rates in the United States.

"When you listen to Powell and other representatives of the Fed, they don't want to takes rates negative," said Dan Ivascyn. He is an investment officer at bond seller Pacific Investment Management Co.

"It will be well down the list of the tools that they will use," he said.

The moves by Europe and Japan's central banks have raised a question about what tools others, such as the U.S. Federal Reserve, have to fight a slowing economy.

The U.S. central bank last month cut its overnight lending rate by a fourth of a percentage point to a target somewhere between 1.5 percent and 1.75 percent.

U.S. President Donald Trump has suggested that the Federal Reserve push interest rates into negative numbers as a way to permit the U.S. government to refinance its $22 trillion in debt.

That is unlikely to happen, some of the financial experts at the meetings said.

"Never say never, but there is a real hesitancy here in the U.S. to take rates below (zero)," said Greg Peters. He is with the investment company, PGIM Fixed Income.

"I think the U.S. has had the benefit of seeing the (effects) of negative rates elsewhere," he added.

Negative interest rates do not always lead to an increase in lending and growing business investment.

Negative rates can cause financial organizations to earn less. If their profits are affected they might stop lending altogether and that would hurt the economy.

Anne Mathias supervises investing at Vanguard. She is an expert in worldwide interest rates. She said negative interest rates are unlikely.

"If we go into a recession...we will just go back to quantitative easing and expand the balance sheet again," she said.

Andrew Hsu is a manager of the DoubleLine Total Return Bond Fund. He warned about the effects of negative rates.

"If we had negative rates for the next 10-20 years... no one in this room will be able to retire," he said.

I'm Susan Shand.

________________________________________________________________

Words in This Story

negative – adj. less than zero

stimulus – n. putting money into an economy

bond – n. an official document in which a government or company promises to pay back an amount of money that it has borrowed and to pay interest for the borrowed money

refinance – v. to get a new loan to pay an older debt

hesitancy – n. slow to act or speak especially because you are nervous or unsure about what to d

quantitative easing – n. the introduction of new money into the money supply by a central bank.


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